Putin "Hanging In There" For Now, But Risks To Power Lie Ahead: Report

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm, said Putin would be in trouble if he ran out of options to escalate the conflict. In that case, the elite would try to persuade Putin to step...

Eight informed sources said Vladimir Putin's grip on power in Russia remains strong despite military setbacks in Ukraine, failed mobilization and political infighting, but some said that could change quickly if a total defeat occurred.

Most said that the Russian president was at one of the most difficult points during his more than two decades of rule in Ukraine, as his invading forces were driven out in some places by armed Kyiv from the west.

But the sources, including current and former Western diplomats and government officials,

He said there was no clear imminent threat from his inner circle, the military or the intelligence services.

"Right now, Putin is hanging there," said Anthony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia.

He said he believed the Russian leader hoped to negotiate Ukraine, perhaps with the Americans,

He had hoped that Moscow's declining fortunes would recover on the battlefield despite what the West says was a shortage of manpower, equipment and even missiles.

In power since 1999, Putin has survived many crises and domestic wars, and more than once faced large street protests before effectively outlawing any real opposition.

seventy years-

But Olds' "special military operation" in Ukraine since February 24 created the most tense East-West confrontation since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and led to the harshest Western sanctions ever imposed on Russia.

His army was subjected to humiliating contractions and heavy losses.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled abroad to avoid fighting.

Putin also engaged in a nuclear clamor in what some interpret as a sign of desperation.

Some allies - from "Putin's soldier", as the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya calls himself, to "Putin's chef",

The title of the head of a mysterious mercenary group - they accused the army leaders of mismanaging the war.

Brenton, who has dealt with Putin during his second term, said there has been no public criticism of him from the political or business elite or any sign of movement against him, but that this may not continue.

“If they find themselves still holding back by the spring, in March/April of next year, my instinct is that at this point things become a real problem for Putin —

Not at the popular level, but at the elite level.

"You have a group of people who are primarily concerned about themselves and don't want to be part of a disaster in the end."

"Arguments of Action"

Protests against mobilization by relatives, Ukraine's pledge not to deal with Putin, and the seemingly unwritten and quickly retractable assertion from US President Joe Biden that Putin should not be allowed to remain in power have fueled speculation about his future.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman,

The Washington Post said this month that a member of Putin's inner circle confronted him about the war "totally untrue" but said there was a frank discussion about politics.

"There are practical arguments: about the economy and the conduct of the military operation," Peskov told reporters. "It is not a sign of any division."

The Kremlin says Putin is overwhelmingly supported by Russians and won a landslide re-election victory in 2018.

The Russian political system is notorious for its opacity, although in the run-up to the invasion Washington showed it could discern Moscow's plans.

A senior Western official who follows the situation closely and declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, said that there have been no major defections so far.

The official said there were signs of infighting, complaints and slow decision-making: "But there are no indications he has lost control."

United State

An official, speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reason, said Washington and its allies assumed Putin's position was safe. "However, many of his recent actions - including mobilization - clearly show that Putin is in a vulnerable position."

With powerful intelligence services supporting a political system with closely watched loyalists,

It would be difficult and dangerous for anyone to move against him.

Andrew Weiss, a Putin specialist at the Carnegie Endowment, said that while "anything is possible" in Russia, public opinion there was less important than in the West, real opponents had either escaped or been imprisoned, and Putin was surrounded by loyalists.

"Show me the person who's going to speak in Putin's office and say you're done. Who would have the guts to do that?" said Weiss, who has had various policy roles on the US National Security Council and has written a book on Putin.

The Russian leader can be overthrown by a palace coup, an elite rebellion,

Or the grassroots “storming of the Bastille,” he said, noting that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein ruled for more than a decade after his 1990 invasion of Kuwait was thwarted.

'Fear condemns'

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the analysis firm R-Politic, said Putin would be in trouble if he runs out of options to escalate the conflict.

In this case, she predicted, the elite would try to persuade Putin to step down, adding that there was still no indication of the type of coups that toppled Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 or targeted Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.

"If he is able to ... fulfill his unspoken obligations before the elite and the population - stability and peace,

"Pensions and salaries -

Nothing will threaten him after that."

“But if ... the Russian army was pushed to the old borders of Russia before the annexation, and if the Ukrainian army continued its offensive ... and if the budget could not keep up with it and there were delays in pensions ... ... the elite would gradually mobilize.”

Although opinion polls in Russia show growing public concern, a French diplomatic source said they believe Putin, who dominates influential state media, can maintain his grip.

"Let's not forget that fear prevails," the source said. "I still believe that the majority of Russians will support Putin in whatever he decides."

A senior European official said Putin would clearly lose the war until he was ousted.

Former British ambassador Brenton said that if that time comes, his successor is unlikely to be a friend of the West.

BY
ProBuzzFeed